« 最勉強開始 | Main | 財政破綻の理由 »

January 09, 2007

日本の財政の現状

大武健一郎『税財政の本道』から読みます。

大武さんは、大蔵省で長く税制に携わり、現在商工中金の副理事長で、大学で非常勤講師もしておられるようです。

まず、日本の財政の現状を勉強します。なお、この本は、2006年7月に刊行されているので、数字は、そこまでの数字です。構造的なことを把握するには、問題ないと思います。新しい数字などは、財務省のURLを参照のこと。

H18年度(予算)では、歳出総額が79.7兆円、歳入(一般会計税収)が45.9兆円、その穴を国債30兆円で埋めるという形になっている。歳出に占める税収の割合は、57.6%に過ぎない。(先日発表されたH19年度の予算では、国債は前年より4.5兆円削減するとあるが、これは、景気回復で税収が7.5兆円増えることによる。)

国債が増え始めたのは、平成4年度(1992年)からで、それまでの6~7兆円から、10兆円近くに、20兆円台に、30兆円台(平成10年度)となっている。

歳入額が平成2年度の60兆円をピークに、現在の46兆円まで12兆円減った一方で、歳出は、平成2年度の69兆円から平成12年度のピークには、89兆円と20兆円も膨らんでいる(その後、現在の80兆円まで9兆円の減少)。→何故こうなったかは後述

一般会計予算80兆円のうち、国債費が19兆円、地方交付税交付金等が15兆円で、残り46兆円が一般歳出額(政策経費)となる。この46兆円のうち、21兆円が社会保障関係費となり、残る25兆円がそれ以外の経費ということになる。財政を健全化させるにあたって、公務員の人件費削減だけでなく、社会保障に係わる制度改革をせざるをえなくなっている。

国債費というのは、過去に発行した国債および新規国債にかかる償還分と利子分等であり、地方交付税交付金等というのは、府県や市町村の財政事情に見合って義務的に交付しなければならないもの。

一般歳出予算の内訳をみると、前述の社会保障関係費に続くのが、7.2兆円の公共事業関係費、次が文教及び科学技術振興費の5.3兆円、次が人件費や司法の経費等を含めた行政経費にあたるその他事項経費5.1兆円、防衛関係費が4.8兆円となっている。

プライマリーバランス(一般会計の基礎的財政収支)とは、税収等による歳入と予算のうちの国債の利払いなどに当てる分を除いた歳出とのバランスのこと。現在は、歳入でようやく一般歳出を賄っている状態であり、プライマリーバランスを回復させるには、地方交付税交付金「相当額」の15兆円分の歳出削減か増税しかない。

○平成18年度は、新規国債発行を30兆円に抑えた→しかし、借換債が108兆円、財政融資特会債27兆円、合計165兆円の国債発行となる。

○平成20年度には、小渕内閣当時に大量に発行された国債の償還がくるので、さらに多額の発行になると想定される。そこで特別会計の見直しによる財源を償還にあて、平準化する努力もされている。

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